Kerr Iraq Survey (Volokh)
My top line: Civilization fights with the humanity it can afford. To date, the United States has made a significant sacrifice in both lives and treasure to excise a part of the terrorist cancer and its supporting nodes with a minimum of collateral damage. If we fail at this surgery (another major attack on the U.S. or its interests), we may find we have to rely on less artful, more terrible, tools. Sadly, many of our major wars have started "restrained" and ended "unrestricted and unconditional" (consider WW1's 1914 spontaneous Christmas truce vs the Christmas of 1916 after the barbarity of the battle of Somme, as both sides filed saw-teeth into their bayonets). We have no reason to expect or demand any different of WW4, though we should pray not. Where Iraq is but a chapter.
Orin asks "First, assuming that you were in favor of the invasion of Iraq at the time of the invasion, do you believe today that the invasion of Iraq was a good idea? Why/why not?"
- It was and remains a reasonable military objective for the same reasons the first campaign after Pearl Harbor was North Africa (and the Vichy French). A thorn (the WMD threat that was Saddam) had to be removed given the uncertainties, and the military needed good fighting ground to make its stand (vs Afghanistan or a less easily justified and harder target). Waiting for the battle to come to this country (fighting in garrison) makes no sense (ditto the placebo of non-productive and anti-competitive taxes and regulation levied on individuals, businesses and communities to "provide for their own (so-called homeland) defense" - vice an effective punitive offense that creates and maintains a civil society - i.e. a Jeffersonian (foreign) policy, as discussed by Gaddis).
- I would have (and continue to) support a more aggressive approach with larger risks, larger returns and a likely higher cost in lives (today, vs tomorrow): i.e. Deliver simultaneous ultimatums to non-deterable states (Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, North Korea, Lebanon and the PLO in Israel would have been a fine start) demanding open skies, transparency in governance, cooperation in policing WMD and terrorists, and surrender on-demand of suspects. Those that cooperated in this and in policing their neighbors would get probation. Those that didn't would have their leadership repeatedly eliminated and infrastructure rubbled until behavior changed. Those that remained that acted responsibly and asked for help would get it. Granted, after a decade of politicizing the military (turning it into "just" another political constituency to be fed and kept quiet), with the decimation and ossification after the cold war, we may just not have had the end strength to do this (nor the stomach to use less-expensive means). And we must not threaten what we will not do. If I had to chose one rogue state after the Taliban, Hussein was it (I also think it is silly to write that we are ever at war with a country "owned" by a tyrannous group). And Hussein's Iraq was and is a fine place for the Army to learn to fight this new kind of war.
- I've no objection to levying taxes on those who won't do their fair-share. Since terrorism is similar to (and worse than) piracy and slavery, all benefit from its elimination, and each has an obligation to do their part, willingly or unwillingly. We are doing this indirectly today... As the owner of the reserve currency, we get to borrow expensive dollars that we repay in cheaper money tomorrow at the cost of our trading partners "supporting" the dollar to advantage their manufacturers (and us!) - which I suspect is a few fractions of a percent of the world's trade that's denominated in dollars. Not as good as Gulf-1 where we actually made money (at better than bank returns, save for lives lost and suggesting to these despots that the U.S. military is for sale), monies that Mr. Clinton promptly spent, but still not chump change.
"Second, what reaction do you have to the not-very-upbeat news coming of Iraq these days, such as the stories I link to above?"
- I have no expectation of good news beyond regime overthrow. Anything more is a gift. A loss of greater than Pearl Harbor lives has forced me to set my expectations to that of WW2, if not Civil War percentage-of-population losses (i.e. 100-1000x over attack casualties), civilian and military. And likely more, given the never-before threat of widely available, inexpensive and little-expertise-required WMDs, deployed by those with an apocalyptic vision who can not be deterred by counter-threat (worse than the kamikazes, who were stopped by the threat to (the capture of) their emperor). No such benefit accrues to capturing or killing Osama.
- However, I do regret when bad news is due to an attempt at socialism-inspired nation-building "welfare" - i.e. when our people are killed doing something the Iraqis could do, perhaps must do, for themselves (similar to issues with welfare in the U.S. as seen in the moral hazard of giving without acknowledged obligation to regain personal responsibility, and perhaps repay the helping hand). But this is our history (and a mark of our civilization). We die all over the world for our friends, and lately, just as often to lower the casualty rate of our enemies (and in urban warfare, sadly, there are no non-combatants, everyone chooses a side, even if just by their silence). n.b. if we fail to remove this cancer this time in Iraq, we'll just have to try again (armies are much better at breaking things than building). Not dissimilar to our history of paying for the same ground two and three times in WW2 and the Civil War. Such is life and war. And the role of soldiers and the democracies that field them.
"Third, what specific criteria do you recommend that we should use over the coming months and years to measure whether the Iraq invasion has been a success?"
- The displacement of Saddam and our resulting bases in Iraq where the 20-40K graduates of the Al Qaeda camps can practice martyring themselves is success. I suspect we've eliminated about 30% of the jihadists, and at 10s per day, we'll be at it for another 5-10 years at which time it will start to feel like Germany or Japan with WW2 as fading memory. Perhaps more like what it took to pacify the American West and the Indian tribes (as described by R.D. Kaplan). With luck a success in Iraq will diminish the need for campaigns in adjacent countries (more Libya-s). Granted, the Fascists did not fold when we invaded North Africa, but after that campaign it was clear they were going to lose, irrespective of their transient advantage in technology and talent. A western-style liberal democracy is a great stretch-goal, but not necessary for success as seen in Singapore or Taiwan (or WW2 and the mixed result in Germany, West and East). In each of these cases the enemies of civilization were humbled and civil society fostered.
My bottom line: The history of WW2 is still being written. WW3 is just now coming into focus well enough to write about dispassionately - though we've yet to go through a grieving, truth-and-reconciliation process for the 100-million-plus lives lost in Marx and Lenin's pursuit of perfecting mankind on earth (with plenty of sins of commission and omission to go around... Yes, this means "containment" was a tactical disaster and a strategic success, at a shameful and great cost). We won't know much, save for the tactical results, about this war until a similar time has passed. I agree with Mr. Bush, in that I'll wait for historians to eventually determine success and failure, and assign a grade. I hope for a "C+" (which is all I'd give our other great wars, Civil thru WW3), and pray this struggle doesn't cost mankind another 100 million lives.
UPDATE: Orin has updated his list of participating sites.
